The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis
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MW: Is this likely to be on the scale of the financial crisis? Or what is a better comparison?
This is because the system itself is of unprecedented scale and interconnectedness. In complex dynamic systems that reach the critical state, the most catastrophic event that can occur is an exponential function of scale. This means that if you double the system, you do not double the risk; you increase it by a factor of five or There is no comparison short of wartime exigencies such as The next crisis will be of unprecedented scale and damage.2018.ugmek.ru/includes
The Road to Ruin
MW: On the flip side, what could prevent this crisis? And how do you respond to those who say this is just fear-mongering and a conspiracy theory? What are they missing? These include reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall separation of investment and commercial banking , breaking up big banks, banning most derivatives, and tougher law enforcement of bank wrongdoing.
The critics do not have a firm grasp of the statistical properties of risk. They are clinging to obsolete equilibrium models instead of embracing more accurate models based on complexity theory and behavioral psychology.
MW: How does the election of Donald Trump play into your scenario of a crisis? What policies would you recommend that he adopt or push Congress for?
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How much of a difference can that make? The Trump administration is focusing on macroeconomic policy relating to taxes, spending and regulation. The policies to avoid a systemic catastrophe in the financial system that I would recommend to the Trump administration are the same ones outlined in the book. These include reinstatement of Glass-Steagall, breaking up big banks and banning derivatives. The odds of any of these policies becoming law are close to zero because of the power of bank lobbyists.
These policies would mitigate systemic risk in the same way that setting off controlled dynamite explosions on steep ski slopes mitigates avalanche risk. These policies could make a huge difference but are unlikely to happen; therefore my systemic-risk forecast is still intact. So far they seem to be saying we saw it coming. Large systemic crises can take a year to incubate and spread.
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